What it can support
Consistent discussion of development uncertainty, evidence quality, missing data, stage context, and major positive or negative drivers.
Responsible decision support
Probability of success as transparent decision support.
Uncertain, stage-specific estimates can help organize assumptions and risk drivers—but cannot replace qualified scientific, clinical, regulatory, technical, or commercial judgment.Meaning and boundaries
A structured hypothesis, not a guarantee.
Probability estimates depend on context, data quality, model design, calibration, and assumptions. They should be monitored, versioned, challenged, and reviewed by authorized experts.What it does not mean
It is not regulatory validation, scientific proof, investment advice, a commercial forecast, or an automatic licensing recommendation.
Potential input domains
Stage-specific models
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.
Therapeutic-area context
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.
Evidence quality and missing-data impact
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.
Confidence intervals and explainable drivers
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.
Human expert review
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.
Model versioning, monitoring, and validation
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.
Limitations
Methodology, assumptions, data lineage, uncertainty, and reviewer action remain visible and auditable in the intended implementation.